Professional Poker Grad Student

Number of Winning Players

2004-11-24T01:18:00.000-08:00

Current Roll: $11615

The sheer number of terrible players on party poker never ceases to amaze me. I wonder how many players on party poker actually make money. According to my PT database, 40% are winning players. This is absolutely meaningless since I don't have another player in my DB with even 1K hands.

There is no way that 40% of the players make money. In my experience of playing and watching other players, I suspect that at 2/4, the 15th percentile is the break even point, and about 85% are losing players in the long run. Does anyone have any differing opinions?

Hand of the day: I was in the BB with KQo. Two limpers in mid and late position. I bet the flop of K83 rainbow, one folds and I'm raised. The player that raised me is an ABC by the books player. I figured AK would have raised preflop, and a set would have raised me on the turn; I figure at worst it's a split pot. So I checkraise the turn...calls me down with KJ! Mark a few extra BBs for a great read!

The Last Month

2004-11-17T20:25:00.000-08:00

I've noticed a correlation between stress and poker winnings. Over the last month, I've been more stressed than I can remember, and my poker results (read: losses) seriously reflected this. As I mentioned in the post above, I dropped almost 200 BB in 3 weeks, and I wasn't even playing so often. In other words, I wasn't taking my own advice and waiting to be capable of playing my A (or even B) game. So I then took a week off completely and focused on school.

After this I toook some time to relax and refocus on my game. Now it's as good as ever having won 9.4 BB / 100 in the last 4K hands (not quite the long run and probably not sustainable, but I think reflective of solid play).

Also, I wanted to point out that The Cards Speak had an excellent post the other day about begin way ahead / way behind that I have experienced in 2/4, but are probably more common in higher limits.

I'm just getting back into the blogging mode, more coming soon!

10K

2004-11-17T11:37:00.000-08:00

Current Roll: $10014

Real life hit me hard, but expect more frequent updates again. After a rough 200 BB downswing, I finally worked my roll up to 10K! More later...

Biggest Poker Game Hole

2004-10-18T20:19:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $9192

Want to know the biggest change I made, going from an ok player to a strong, consistantly profitable player? I've had more than one person emailing me asking me for advice, and this is the best advice I can give for those that understand the fundamentals of poker and want to make money. It was, by far, the hardest thing for me to do. Don't play when you can't play your best game. That's it, it's that simple. Don't play when you're tired, stressed, emotional, or unfocused. Don't play desperate poker; play poker confident in the knowledge that money's going to flow from them to you. I play completely confident that I will make money playing this way, and I do.

I see it almost every night, people that should be playing decent poker are literally giving their money away. The Cards Speak had an excellent post on this subject, far better than I could write. He suggests 35BB as a stop loss limit - I'd suggest even smaller. Although, if you can get to the point where actual results don't matter - only the quality of your play matters - then you can ignore everything I wrote. This is much easier if you have an obscenely large bankroll - I'd barely notice 35BBin my roll.

I'm at this point, or think I am. Yesterday I dropped 30BB in my first 20 minutes of play, I was getting crushed. Getting huge hands that woudn't hold. But I kept playing my game and finished up a respectable and healthy 9BB / 100. I can't always ignore results though, someimes it angers me; but I'm getting far better at recognizing these times and walking away. Walking away down is one of the hardest things to do, as I'm sure many of you know. But I promise you this - it will improve your bottom line. It took me a long time and a lot of money to learn this the hard way, hopefully my advice will help someone. If not, you're always welcome at my table :)

A Month

2004-10-16T13:27:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $8422

Hand of the Day: This is something that it is difficult to do, getting good reads on players while playing 4 tables. I usually can only get good reads on those that play too many hands, because I am often contesting pots with them. It's tough to put this hand in context, but I've been railing this guy by making correct reads to really maximize every bet against him. I've been checkraising him on the river with hands marginally better (a better kicker for example). He's been so frustrated he had been taken to calling my river raises with as little as A high.

I'm Holding QTo in the cuttoff. This ridiculously terrible player is in the BB, he will bet almost anytime it is checked to him. I raise first in and it's heads up. Flop of 655, he bets and I raise. Turn is an A and he bets again. I'm positive this didn't help him, so I raise again. Turn is the flush card, this guy could literally have any two cards, and he bets again. I have Q high so there's no way in hell I could call, so I raise him. He thinks forever, and calls with Jack high! I'm laughing so hard right now, and just waiting for the money to flow from him to me. Sure enough, a few hands later he calls me down with Q high against my pocket tens. I had him playing so terribly against me it's very unfortunate that I had to leave.

It's been a month and $4K since I started this blog. About a month and a half since I had a poker epiphany, going from a slightly profitable player to a very profitible player.

Some say a way to a fulfilling career is to find a hobby you love, become good at it and make a career out of it. If this is ever the truth, online poker is the exception. Online poker is fun and profitable, but it is NOT fulfulling. There's nothing fulfilling about sitting along in front of a computer screen, clicking graphical buttons all the while taking suckers' money. It's fun and can be a huge rush, but at the end it often leaves me empty. The anti-social nature of online poker often leaves me yearning for social contact.

Online poker players are a leeches on society, almost as bad as corporations (or governments) that profit from other forms of gambling. Some pros justify this - they claim we're giving entertainment. Bullshit. Mabye in live play, if you're an entertaining, funny, likeable person this could be a justification. Otherwise, in online play, any recreational, poker playing fish could be just as entertaining, if not more so (I personally find poor play far more entertaining than solid play).

I don't plan on becoming a fulltime, online poker pro. If I were ever to become a true professional online poker player, I would only like to do so part time. And I would make sure to spend my other professional time contributing and participating in society, and having a social life.

There's a young adult's book by Minnesota auther Pete Hautman, Stone Cold. It's a quick, good read about a teenager that has a good life and then becomes a professional poker player. I certainly could empathise with the charecter, and it helped me examine priorities and the pros and cons of professional poker.

I've been very busy lately, and I haven't been playing as much as before. I have a lot of posts half written that I would like to finish, a bunch of hands to analyze, aggressive play to discuss. So stay tuned. In the meantime, I'm going to plug a new blog, pokerhack. This is run by a fellow 2/4 player who lives near me in the NC Triangle area.

PokerTracker

2004-10-11T13:10:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $7976

I finally bought poker tracker. I imported all my hands since Sep 30th, over 7K of them. First things first, 7K hands is clearly not the long run, but interesting nonetheless.

Monetary Results -

Won over $2K in 7300 hands.
7.42 BB / 100 hands. This seems reasonable, but I think I can improve this.
4.81 BB / table hour, true win rate of 18.14 BB / hour or $72 an hour. Not bad, certainly enough to live on.
Rake - $821! Over a third of my winnings. Wow.

Preflop Results -

Voluntarily put money in the pot 25%. Seems about right.
Voluntarily put money in from sb: 43% Seems a bit loose.

Aggression - I'm an aggressive player and think I should be more aggressive.

Flop aggression factor - 3.88!
Turn - 2.9
River - 1.66
Overall aggression including PF - 1.77. Definitely aggressive
I don't know how I feel about my river aggression, I seem a bit overly cautious.

Time of Day - There are differences. I'm not too surprised, but this is not the long run so who knows.

I have winning session totals from 10am - 10pm.
My only losing session totals are 10 - midnight and 2am-4am. I'm not surprised as I'm usually tired and unfocused at these times.

Position - I clearly don't take this much into account preflop, all my non-blind $Vol numbers are 21-23%. But I do seem to do a bit better monetarily in later position, so mabye I should make some adjustments. I may be too loose in the BB as I have huge losses there. I should look into this more.

I will def. play around with this some more, but this is interesting inital thoughts. Insights, anyone? Comparisons with your 2/4 results? Let me know.

Slowplaying in Low Limits: A Big Mistake?

2004-10-10T21:47:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $7746

Hand of the day: I have a tough time making accurate reads when people make plays that I would never consider (mabye this is my problem...I should be considering some even more aggressive plays?). I'm an aggressive player, so when someone plays a hand far more aggressively that I would I have trouble comprehending his play. I'm in MP, I make a loose raise first in with QJs. Short stack rerraises $.50 more all in, next player completes the full raise. I call for the one more bet. Flop of JT8, gives me top pair and a straight draw and a bdoor flush. Heads up not including the all in player. I bet and he raises. Turn 9, I checkraise him and he 3 bets. I bet and call his raise on the river and he turns over KQo. I had trouble making this read, considering his previous action, especially with an all in player.

Second hand of the day: I was surprised at this hand. I'm holding 5's (no diamond) in the BB. Everyone folds to the cutoff who opens. I reraise and the flop comes 962 two diamonds. I bet, he calls. Turn is the A of diamonds. I bet he calls. River is a 3 of diamonds. I check, and fold when he bets - and he turns over the QJ of hearts! What the hell?! Clearly he's trying to advertise or make me emotional, but I feel I played that hand well, and I'd play it the same way next time since very few people will play the hand as he did.

Of those that clearly have an idea of what they are doing, slowplaying is often one of their biggest losses of BBs. To see why, I think it's important to understand exactly where profit comes from in low limits.

Profit comes when players invest money in the pot not justified by their returns. That's it, and it's completely general and includes pot odds, effective odds, (reverse) implied odds, etc. You need to give them every opportunity to invest money when you are a favorite, especially on the flop where most low-limit players will be the loosest. Also, showing too much strength on the flop can be interpreted as a sign of bullying or weakness! (I make this interpretation frequently, sometimes correctly and sometimes not)

I could list hand after hand of people that missed out on bets from me because they waited until the board became scary to show me strength - they're slowplaying against a player they should know to be aggressive!. I lost count of how many times people have caught runner runners because they were given a free card on the flop (mabye they still would have caught and you would have lost more - but the long run you'd be making a killing!) I've lost count of how many people will cap the flop with me, while they are holding nothing, and then come out betting the turn, and I love this multihanded. I'm still surprised how many people will put in 4 bets on the flop and then fold for 1 turn bet (does anyone know what they could possibly have?!), all those bets are often missed due to slowplaying!

The more people that are in, the less likely you should be to slowplay since it's far more likely you will get raised and these raises called by more people. The less people are in, the more aggressive people are in general so you should be punishing that overaggessiveness when you hold an edge. Don't slowplay!

People in low limits will chase with the longest odds against them, often drawing nearly dead. I've seen people chase (and hit) backdoor flushes on a capped flop. You want this! And I've seen far, far worse chases, including 1000-1 chases in a capped flop (i.e. guy had A3o, opponents had AQs and 33 flop came 3xx, got the two running aces for the only possible win). Don't give them a cheap shot at outdrawing you, and if they're drawing dead force them to pay for that too.

If you're slowplaying suited flops, connected flops, flops with an ace, or any hand with aggressive players - you're almost surely missing bets, and I see it happen all the time.

Anyways, I don't slowplay anymore. I can't remember the last hand I slowplayed. I used to go for checkraises, but now I'd rather bet and be raised so I can reraise. I garnish my aggressive image and want people to always be guessing (if they're even paying attention). Now if I'm checkraising I'm far more likely to be weak than strong, but I'll leave my theory of checkraising to another day :)

Is it ever more profitable to slowplay than not? - yes of course! But it's very tough to tell when it will be more profitable to slowplay so you should error on the non-slowplaying side. Because more often than not, I think you are missing out on bets. There are many other advantages to playing a flop fast and hard, such as information and control of the hand, but I'll leave those to another day.

Building a Roll

2004-10-08T15:19:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $7283

It was my buddy's birthday last night and I got so drunk I passed out on my living room floor, 5 feet from the bathroom where I kept trying to throw up. Ahh the life of a grad student. Alcohol here in NC is relatively cheap, but I still worked up a tab of $70 not including the tip, so I hope my winning streak continues.

Hand of the day: I had kings in late position, and someone in early position had raised with one cold caller. I reraise, the EP caps and the MP calls. 3 handed flop of A83. Not my flop, but the EP and MP check. Had the EP bet and the MP called, I would have a difficult time overcalling here, but checked to me I have to find out where I am so I bet and they both call. Turn is a 4 and it's checked to me. I'm scared of an ace or worse, including the possibility of being check-raised so I check behind. Anways, the river is a blank, the EP thinks for a bit and bets with the MP calling. Now I think I have the EP beat, and I'm not sure about the MP so I just call; I'm not happy with this but the pot size and their actions justify a call. They have QQ and JJ.

The EP made the biggest mistake in this hand - when there are 4 or less people in a flop, always bet the flop if you put in the last raise preflop (unless of course you have a good read). I don't care what you have or what the flop looks like, there are too many people too often willing to fold for one bet on the flop, even in $2/4. The pot is about 7 BB and for one small one he has a good enough chance (give our hands) to pick this one up on the flop. I probably would not have called on this flop, assuming one of the two had an ace; and the reverse implied odds of calling down means I could be paying 2.5bb to see his hand, whereas I could call on the river because the reverse implied odds are now 0. Had I folded to this hypothetical flop bet, I would have been wrong, but in the long run I think it's more profitable to worry about an ace. Of course this may be a weak/tight hole in my game.

One of my readers asked my opinion on building a bankroll. Specifically among tournies/cash, online/live games. I recently read a relevant post about this on internetpokerpro. (this is the blog I modeled mine after) The post is here. I think tournies are a terrible way to build a bankroll; there's more of a luck factor and very low payoff for all but the top places. That being said, I think tournies are a good way to build up a lot of hands of experience for cheap. I rarely play tournies anymore - I like the flexibility of jumping in and out of cash games when I please.

I also think that - purely for building a bankroll - online games are far better. You're going to get to the long run faster since you play more hands per hour. The rake is lower. There are less distractions, and it is often more comfortable in your own home. I think it's still a toss up whether the players are better online or in live games, but either way there are plenty of fish.

Anyways, I'm working on a post on slowplaying, which is one of the biggest mistakes I see among these lower limit players who percieve their actions as skillful.

Suited Connectors

2004-10-06T17:02:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $7058

I must have had aces and kings 7 times within 40 hands, and they held every time. Incredible. No huge pots though, just a bunch of small ones. But, I'll take a small pot over losing a big one any day.

I have a thing for suited connectors, 67 - TJ 0 gaps and I also like the 97s - J9s one gaps. On good, loose tables I tend to call out of position or I will cold call raises. Mathematically, the long run EV of doing this is certainly positive under the right conditions, but it's hard to judge implied odds, etc. My anecdotal experience says that I win huge pots with these things under the right conditions, and these are often easy to let go when the flop doesn't hit me hard.

Unsuited, I normally fold these without thinking, but being suited is a strong advantage. Not only do you have the extra chance of winning, but you have more reasons to play aggressively.

The best conditions are when you have a bunch of players that overplay their hands, take flops with any ace, any suited, any connector, any pair, can't read a board, chase with any draw whatsoever including small pairs, etc. I will take flops with more speculative hands under these conditions because I will be paid off.

Anyways, today I hit two notable, big pots playing suited connectors. First hand, I have 97 diamonds in early position. UTG raises, UTG+1 calls and so do I, the button reraises and UTG caps. Granted, my original call was very loose, looser than I usually play, but it was a really good table. My current pot odds forced the second call. The flop of JTT (two diamonds) is 6 handed. Checked to me, I bet my straight flush draw and get check raised by the big blind, now a 3 way pot. Turn is the flush Q, checked to me and I bet the turn and river. BB shows J9o and I rake in a huge pot.

The other hand I have 78s on the button, one raise to me. I call, the BB 3 bets and the OB caps. Another 6 handed, capped pot. The flop is 975 one of my suit. BB bets out, a few callers, LP raises and I 3 bet it. My reasoning is that I'm certainly a favorite against overcards, so I want to make them pay or get out even if I'm slightly behind. This pot is huge and I want to win it anyway I can. If the turn is unfavorable, mabye I can take a free card. And I want to know where I stand relative the others. When the LP caps it, I'm thinking that I could be very far behind, probably a set. Anyways, the turn is a wonderful 6 and I rake in another huge pot when the river is a Q.

The guy said it was 'the ultimate suckout' on his pkt 5's (my poker calculator gave me 20% odds heads up, and my EV climbs with more people in, depending on their holding). There was plenty in the pot to call here, and if you're going to call, why not raise :) Anyways, he could have been raising lite and it was worth the extra money to find out, drive out overcards (giving me a better chance to win this huge pot), and possibly getting a free card on the turn.

Also, I'm not as sure about taking a flop with pkt 5's in this spot. I'd rather have 87s here than 5's anyday. I've called two bets and folded for two more with smaller pairs like 5's; with essentilly two outs they're just too speculative and it's easy to lose even if you hit. Though in this case there were so many people in I could agree with his decision to try to hit a flop, but I wouldn't be happy about it.

Anyways, this is how I like to play suited connectors. I believe it's +EV when done correctly under the right conditions. And it's a lot more fun to play some more speculative hands now and then :) And don't forget the tilt factor; when someone hits a huge hand and gets sucked out! And the fish factor, when someone sees you win with speculative hands, they may think you could play any two.

Online chat

2004-10-05T15:28:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $6730

When holding the nuts on the river - may you always be check-reraised multihanded. I had an incredible two days, made about $1200 in about 9 hours of play (including a $100 rebuy bonus).

Online chat - My buddy suggests turning off chat. His reasoning is that no good can come of it, and other players could use it to put you on tilt. He has a point, but I respectfully disagree. Occasionally, in chat, people will tell you what your table image is, and give you clues on how to beat them.

At this table today, I was playing some strong draws aggressively and hitting. When I beat my immediate left out of a second large pot, he typed in chat 'I can never beat you'. I responded that I was just lucky, but I was thinking that he would try to outplay me. A few hands later I have 88 in MP, I raise and he cold calls. The pot is heads up for a flop of K33 rainbow. I bet he calls. The turn is an offsuit 4, I bet and he raises. Normally I lean towards folding in this spot, absent other information. But because I was expecting him to outplay me, I called his bluff (he had Q4s!). Also, it was a poor play of his to make a river bet (I probably won't fold a winner nor call with a loser), but I'll leave terrible river bets for a later day.

This is a recent example, but certianly not the only time that I've used chat to my advantage. I would suggest never NEVER type anything in chat that could give someone else an advantage. This especially includes any chat that conveys anger or the possiblity that you are on tilt or upset about being outdrawn. Others will pick up on this and target you; I personally love targetting players on tilt, they are the biggest payoffs.

I will also echo the suggestion that it is not cool to berate the fish for doing dumb things and getting lucky. They might learn better. I personally have been guilty of of berating poor players, but only when the terrible players start trash talking; I then feel compelled to put them in their place. I have personal issues with terrible players trash talking. Mabye I shouldn't, does anyone have opinions on this?

Outs that aren't-I have to remind myself that I don't always have as many outs as it sometimes seems. I had the 67s, and the flop came 58K with me having an open ended straight flush draw. I figure I have 15 outs which is > 50% to hit by the river. But wait - my two oppenents have K5s and two higher clubs, leaving me significatly less outs! So when I capped the flop, I was slightly -EV instead of the +EV that I expected. According to my poker calculator, I'll win 29% of the time, which is less than the 1/3 that I would need to be +EV (I'm even worse off if the rake is included). Even though I hit the straight and won the hand, I made a mistake by reraising the flop. I just thought of this now, it may have been worth it if I had been able to take a free card on the turn; though I'm not sure if I would have taken it or not.

Update

2004-10-04T00:41:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $6070

If anyone wants to contact me, my email is propokergrad@gmail.com

Sorry it's been so long for me to update my blog. I've barely had time to get drunk, much less play and blog on poker. It seems my rut has run it's course. My last few days were some of my best, and my roll also beneffited from a reload bonus.

I Had a proverbial ATM sitting at my table today. He would repeatedly reraise preflop with any connectors, and would not fold no matter what. Needless to say I started capping it with him with any two cards worth raising, and he paid me off in spades. One hand he called me down with ten high, a few hands later he called me down with 3rd pair, which he had rivered.

When I started this blog, I had the lofty goal of earning $1K a week at poker. It is clear that this goal was too high; time constraints and a terrible week have prevented me from continuing to achieve this goal. That being said, I'm reasonably happy with my progress. Mabye I haven't hit the long run yet, but I think I've shown the possibility of earning a fairly comfortable living playing low stakes part time poker online.

Variance

2004-09-29T20:21:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $5515.

After hitting a low of $5300, I hope my losing streak is over. A few days of losses really helped me understand why there are so many so skeptical of 'those going pro' on RGP. Fortunately I have a grad student stipend I can pay rent and food on, but I am starting to like the extra income. Sometime I will write on my grad student friends' opinions of my online poker playing.

There's a lot of confusion on probability and statistics, and particularily their applications to poker. In fact, humans in general have a difficult time intuitively understanding statistics, probability, randomness.

Varience in particular; humans learn from feedback. If we push hands that only have a 40% chance of winning against 4 opponents, we make money in the long run but will most likely lose it in the short run. Or if we have a 40% chance of winning against one opponent, it is very likely that we will win money in the short run. This inverse feedback - winning from bad plays and losing from good plays, makes poker an incredibly hard game to learn. In fact, the pattern of winning and losing based purely on long term odds is nearly impossible to see without some statistical tools over samples of tens of thousands of hands.

Since humans learn from feedback and the feedback from poker has a lot of randomness, this means that we have difficulty learning good, long term poker habits mearly from experience. If you read rec.gambling.poker. you will see that many people have all sorts of superstitions and beliefs directly contradicting statistical laws, and they gained these theories from personal, everday experience. This is why the statistical formulations are so important - they skip the experience step and allow us to play winning poker for the long run.

The other human reaction is internal / external attribution of feedback. Winning streaks are attributed internally; people feel they win because they are good players. Whereas losing streaks are attributed externally; bad cards, someone else is incredibly lucky, online sites are rigged, etc. The thing is, it's very difficult to assses, in the short run, whether the wins or loses are coming from playing well or not.

Many terrible players think they are good because they have had some short run winning streaks and come up with external explanations for their losses. They have difficulty seeing that they are playing poorly in the long run. And for you and me, this is only a good thing, because it keeps them in the game.

Of course, there's a lot more to poker than blind statistics. But it's certainly a start that will put you ahead of the nearly all 2/4 players.

PokerStars $20K Tourney

2004-09-27T21:46:00.000-07:00

Played only a little today, but I felt a lot better about my game even if I posted a small loss. Here's a tourney report from a tourney I played in a while ago.

This is the first and only time I played in the PokerStars $20K guarenteed tourney, a few months ago. PartyPoker was having problems with their servers, so I went over to pokerstars. This was the first real time I had played on their servers. I signed up because they held a lot more tournies than party, but I had never really played there.

Anyways, I signed up for a $1 limit omaha hi/lo tourney. I did alright, but far from the money. While I was playing, they announced this $10/1 NLHE tourney that started at 10.15. I decided to go for it. As it started though, I realized it allowed rebuys, and that this could take all night. Well, I wasn't expecting to do well, as I've never finished in the money in a large field tourney, so I just decided to stick with it.

I didn't play the first 17 hands until I find myself with KJo in mid position and limp in. The button (PCFishing - he comes up a lot in the early parts of this tourney) doubled the blinds and I called. The flop came AT2 rainbow, giving me the nuts gutshot. I bet the minimum (30) into the button, who raised to 120. There was one other who cold called, and I decided to go for his whole stack and call. Needless to say, the turn was a bueateful Q, and I tripled up against his AT and the other's gutshot and pair KQ. Sure I got lucky, but he misplayed his hand by not raising enough to force me out.

Three hands later, gain another K or so by calling a jackal while I was in the blind with AQs (he had K6o). I hardly play the next 20 some hands until I find KK in 2nd position. UTG raises all in, and I reraise all in, taking down the pot against his AQ.

The next 40 hands I see a few flops, win a few blinds, but don't move in stack size much, until I see a 9Ts in mid-late position when it is folded to me. I triple the blinds and the BB (PCFishing) calls. The flop of J83 gives me an openeded so I bet about half the pot and he calls. The turn in an ugly 8, same bet/call. The river finishes my straight and I bet 3K and PCFishing calls with AQ!

10 hands later I find 98d in late position and decide to steal. I get one caller and a board of A42. I bet 1K, he checkraised me to 2K. I smelt a bluff (although I'm sure he had me, just no ace) so I 3 bet it and he folded! He commented - 'dam u hit ur 3 outs, sick' - implying that he had a large pkt pair (probably JJ). His fault for playing his hand so terribly :) Anyways, this hand filled me with confidence that helped me pull the trigger in later, incredibly scary flops.

KK was good to me again, gutting a short stack and taking PCFishing's chips again. Next 30 hands I'm being blinded to death, so I start aggressively chasing blinds. This works well for a bit, until I start getting played back at, so I slow down again.

Hand #162, I get TJ in the BB. Early position doubles the blinds and I call. Flop comes 789, for the nuts. One of my favorite tactics these days is to bet the minimum with a monster, expecting to be raised. So I bet the minimum and he raised :). The Turn was a K, not changing a thing. I checkraised him all in and he called with AK! Double up again! I have 56K in chips, 2nd on the table by 7K.

I get overaggressive again, and handed some chips away stupidly, so I tighten up considerably (also TERRIBLE cards). Hand 211 I get KK and double up! Then 66 doubles me again against AK. I'm now the table chip leader at 110K. Then (hand 241) a stack a bit more than me, who's been aggressive at the blinds, raises my BB when he's SB all in. I easily call with AQ against his A7 and double to 230K.

Except now, we have someone at the table who's at 500K. Fortunately, watching him play now allows me to take his chips easily later now. But with him next to me on my left, I'm too hesitent to blind steal. After I find out he folds when the flop misses him, I started stealing blinds more often, hoping he'd call. He'd give me plenty of chips to hold on a few more rounds. Almost completely from him, I work my way up to 400K by hand 288, in which a critical decision to be made happens.

Guy opens to 100K in 2nd position. He hasn't been too aggressive preflop and I see AKo. He's on a shorter stack and is pot committed - he's in this hand to the end. It's a simple decision - I fold AK. Half my chips is too much to risk this close to serious money, when I'm at best a 50-50, potentially much worse. Anwyays, the guy on my left isn't thinking like me and pushes all in w/ AT. OB had pkt 9's, w/ a nine on the flop doubles him up as I pat myself on the back.

4 hands later I find AK again! This time, the preflop raiser is on a larger stack, who's been EXTREMELY aggressive preflop and is in stealing position. So again, an easy move, I reraise all in and he folds :)

I think that a lot of players don't understand the difference between how the same hand is played in different situations. In the first situation the raiser was

-pot committed so he wasn't going to fold to a reraise
-well out of steal position
-not very aggressive preflop

The 2nd raiser was
-not pot committed so if he was on a steal he could lay it down
-in steal position
-very aggressive preflop

and I don't want to go all in with a drawing hand like AK in this stage in the tourney. It's not enough of a favorite over weaker holdings and is a dog against any pair, so I want them to fold to my raise.

Playing tightly, I lose chips down from 400 to 320 when I find 58o in a good steal spot. I double the bet from the SB and the BB calls. The flop comes K76 2 diamonds and I pot commit myself without going all in. He thinks a long while and raises me with JdTd, a flush draw. I think this is a terrible play on his part, even if he is a huge favorite, he really wants me to fold with such a weak holding on his part. Being pot committed that isn't going to happen. Anways, the straight comes and no flush so I double to 3rd chip position with 8 players left.

5 hands later I find JhJc in the BB. 3rd position double blinds, short stack calls all in and I call in the BB. flop is three hearts under J, so I move all in. He thinks a long while and calls with AhQ. Heart on the turn makes me a loser. On a short stack, I find 55 in steal position, run into aces and it's over. I finish 7th place for a profit of $950.

I've played a few large fields, but never hit the money before. My adreniline was pumping so much I coudn't call asleep for another 40 minutes, even though I had been up since 7.30 and it was after 4 before I slept.

I haven't done this again, largely because of the timing. I really want to though, this tourney is full of dead money.

Impatience and Stress

2004-09-26T13:26:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: 5430

I got an undeservingly good plug from Guinness and Poker, Thanks Iggy.

Looks like another keeper right here. Mike is a grad student AND a pro poker player. Smart and unemployed make for a compelling blog, imho. Please scroll a little down for his excellent post on the the MSN news article on poker bots and the consequent follow-up discussion on Slashdot, which I only now realize that I forgot to link to. Hit his site for the full skinny.

If you are coming from his site, be sure to scroll down to read up on the current and future state of bots on the internet. Feel free to shoot me an email.

My research is frustrating me to no end; my advisor is pushing me very hard for this research paper we are working on. This week I also went through the oral qualifying exams which are required to get into the phd program. Along with some other social stress, I haven't been able to relax for a while.

This has certainly affected my poker game. In fact, it affected my game so strongly that I'm really concerned about my abilities to ever really derive all of my income from poker. I don't want to go through life where stress affects my ability to derive a comfortable income.

This frustration is leading to impatience in my poker game. I'm pushing cards I shouldn't be pushing because I don't want to wait for a more clear mathematical advantage. I'd love to be able to blame the cards, but I don't think the bad beats are coming any more frequently than they always do. It was so bad that someone appoligized to me when his Kings held against my AQs (the flop came Q high and I pushed it far to hard when the best I could reasonably hope for was a split). He appologized! I felt so sick and patronized I had to end my poker session for the day.

In my experience, Good players play poker expecting their mathematical advantage to hold up for a profit, wheras poor players play poker hoping to get lucky for a profit. The past few days I have definitaly felt myself in the latter catetgory and I need to reflect on my priorities and ability to play right now.

Coming soon: A tournement report on the PokerStars 20K tourney!

Today's Results

2004-09-22T20:23:00.000-07:00

Current Roll $5531

Pocket kings cracked 3 times today, twice by poket Aces. Only time I got aces, they were cracked by a two outer from A9o. Still posted an acceptable win for the day.

Got called down by 9 high today. Good thing he never bet, because I would have probably tossed my king high. Why do people do this to themselves, at least bluff!

Hand of the day: The thing about suited connectors is that the board can hit multiple people very hard. You'll often see two pair vs a straight, or strong draws. This is one of my least favorite positions to be in, I flop top two but there are three cards to a straight. I know I have to push this to make the drawers pay, but I may be the one on the draw. Folded to me on the button with KQs, I raise and the blinds call. Flop is KQJ two suited. BB bets, I raise, SB 3 bets, BB caps and I strongly consider folding but I call. Of course the SB has AT and the BB has T9. I think if the turn was raised I would have tossed it for two big bets, but I chased the whole way. I think if more people were in I could have tossed it on the flop, but with only three people contesting a pot, people get far more aggressive and it's tougher to get an accurate read.

Hot Hot Hot!

2004-09-21T16:06:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $5387

25 min hot streak to make up for yesterday's downfall. Pulled off a few well timed bluffs, couldn't miss a draw.

won: $220
showdowns won: 100%
flops seen:31%
hands won: 12%

Poker Bots

2004-09-21T13:19:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $5166.

I had the worst losing streak I've experienced in a long time. I worked my way to up $150 over about an hour and a half. Then, I hit a ton of big hands and lost it all. Lost the whole $150 in 15 minutes. It's the most angry and closest I've been to tilting in a while, so I quit. Quitting itself is a success I am proud of, that I was able to quit when I knew emotions would prevent me from playing my A game.

Slashot covered the possibility of poker bots today.

The article itself is ok, but most of the comments in slashdot are terrible. A few common misconceptions: Making a poker bot to beat pp $2/4 wouldn't be difficult at all. Nor would the creator need to be a good poker player. Most people suck at poker because they are impatient and don't understand the odds. For most people, playing bad poker is far more fun that playing good poker.

For someone at my level of computer science, all the difficult problems have been solved and published by University of Alberta's game group: http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~games/poker/ A lot of their work - and I've read it all - deals with heads up but there is plenty enough information to create a very good bot at a full table.

I've implemented some screen scraping and event reading for party poker. Combine some ANN's, game theory, hand strength evaluator, and you could have a very strong bot. If I worked on it full time, it would take me max 3 months to have a winning bot, maybe less. I can't think of anyway that party poker would ever be able to detect that I'm using a bot. There are almost certainly bots out there thought I doubt they are widespread. They are certainly not all strong nor winning.

Someone from MIT claims to have implemted a bot with friends.

Reading his post it sounds like they implemented an 'expert system' for play, which is certainly the most simple, but also the least pure and least adaptable system to implement. Expert systems are the most basic but can still be powerful. Basically, expert systems have some hardwired plays they always make. Good players would be able to exploit the predicitability of expert systems.

Here's my prediction - there will be a technological battle between sites and bots. This battle has had a few skirmishes (i.e. party poker and winholdem). (For those that don't know, winholdem is a commercial program that will play your cards for you.)

These skirmishes haven't been pretty. There have been innocent casulties, including some reports of people having their accounts closed for running microsoft's calculator in the background. Poker sites will work hard to improve their defense and eliminate false positives, but I think there will always be false positives. People who did nothing wrong will be accused of cheating and their accounts may become forfeit.

I've already considered some of the things that poker sites can do to combat bots. PokerStars is already a lot more protected that party poker. This is because they don't write each action into a text box that is easily readable by another program, as party does. That doens't make it impossible to get the information, it just makes it non-trivial. I havn't specifically dealt with some of the issues that come up with creating a bot on poker stars, but there are plenty of code libraries out there to help capable programmers.

In summary, there's not a lot the sites can do. Given time and energy, the bots will probably win out. I remain hopeful the sites will come up with some technological savior, but since I understand the technological challenges, I remain skeptical. We'll see, and online poker is certainly a field I am considering working in someday.

Legally, there is little to no recourse for the poker sites, as Loic Dachary points out. Unfortunately, the same laws that protect poker bots protect valid and important rights of software developers and consumers themselves. It may be possible to carefully construct laws to protect against bots but leave other rights in check, though enforcing these laws would be difficult since Loic is completely right about the impossibility of detecting bots. I think Loic trivializes some of the options poker sites have to make life difficult for bots, but otherwise he is completely on the mark.

The future looks bleak for honest poker players who want to compete against other humans. I'd like to end this post on an optimistic note, but I just can't think of one.

Aggression

2004-09-20T01:13:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $5164

For the third time this month I've cashed out and proceeded to have a winning session. So much for the 'cashout curse'.

I promised myself I wouldn't play again tonight, but I did anway. After a slow start of dropping over $100, I upped the aggression level against these weak-tights and just cleaned up. Even including the slow start, I made $159 in an hour and 10 minutes.

The power of aggression is absolutely amazing. Applied to the weak tights who won't bluff or semi-bluff you, it's like a hot knife threw butter. The table I was on went shorthanded, so I was raising preflop about every third hand. Again and again they would see the flop and then fold for one flop bet. I almost felt bad. And it was so easy to see the texture of a flop where I was probably beaten and let it go easily.

For instance, raise K9s UTG, 6 people at the table all weak tight. 5 people see a flop of A74, two clubs. Here, it's easy to check and fold. In the actual hand, it was AQ vs 77 vs 85o and the 85 held when it turned the straight.

I saw one of the worst plays ever, so I thought I would share. I sit at the table and post in mid early position and get AJo, J of diamonds. Flop comes Q83 of diamonds. UTG player bets out and I decide to draw for 3rd best flush. Turn is the Ah and I raise when he bets. River is the Kd, he checks and calls. He turns over a black K9! Not only did he bet a diamond flop with nothing but an overcard, he calls when raised after an ace falls! I'm still amazed at how bad some of these players are.

So many tilting players on short stacks capping with nothing just to get all in, I love it. Someone capped it with me holding pkt 9's when the flop came AT3 rainbow, I of course had AKs and we had capped preflop. What was he thinking? Someone 3 bet my AQs, capped the flop for him to get all-in when I flopped a gut and bdoor flush. My Q kicker beat his 9. Poor guys, I suppose I was in that desperate mode once too. I never plan on going back.

Atlantic City Trip Report

2004-09-19T13:49:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: 5005

I wasn't going to play anymore, but I popped my roll up to $5K just for completeness.

This summer I went to AC for the first time. It was about a 3-4 hour drive from where I was living at the time. I had two friends from undergrad, one that flew in to go to AC and one that was in town for week or two. The three of us are poker addicts, I also had a few non-poker playing friends that went to AC for Saturday only.

The first thing I noticed about AC is that it's not Vegas. Not even close. The town is very sketchy and you don't even have to leave touristville to find places I wouldn't want to be at night. When we go to vegas, we can usually stay on the strip for under $200 a night on weekends. Here the cheapest weekend rate we could find was the Best Western, for over $250. Mabye we screwed that one up.

I forget the first hotel we went to play poker at. It had a small poker room on the 4th floor of the hotel. There were three games going in a room that had about 15 tables. We were talking to the brush about a tournament later in the day, and he wasn't clear on the difference between limit and no-limit, much less capable of telling us which category the tourney fell. Not impressed.

We then went to the tropicana which has a better poker room. My friend wanted to play in a $65 NLHE tourney, and I played also. The tourney for me went terribly. I played tight and wasn't getting any hands. I didn't realize it was a rebuy until too late, and I dind't rebuy because I didn't want to throw more money away. Clearly I didn't win, but my friend got one out of the money which is impressive. He's a tight weak player, and I saw the cards hit him over the head for a huge winning streak.

Then we hit the Borgata's room. This is clearly the cleanest, most professional and impressive poker room. They have the best system I've seen for queueing players; with flat screen TV's that show the line and touch screen interface for the brushes. I'm keeping my eye on the company that provides this technology, QueueOS. Anyway, this is the room I had the most fun at, probably because they were providing me with free corona's. I played a few hands in stud and got outdrawn in two big pots. When I got a hold'em table, I was half-drunk and getting all the action I could hope for. The deck didn't hit me over the head, but I finished up about $50.

But the most action was at the Taj. They had the biggest room and the coolest dealers. The problem was, it had an atmosphere of dirtyness that the Borgata did not, and they didn't have free corona's. Both times I was there, some maniacs threw me off. These games were wild and I had some fairly big swings. I lost a big hand with AK against a complete maniac when the board was AKT (K) (blank) and we capped it the whole way with a KQ in there also. The maniac of course had AA, but I realy couldn't give him credit for it. Even still I made about $100 at the Taj over two sessions.

The dealers were the best at the Taj, and I tipped them accordingly. They really tried to entertain, doing card tricks, fast dealing, entertainng talking and more. These were the low limit tables and I play live to have fun and be social.

Let me say that again - I play in live games to have fun and be social. I like the games where there are happy people and we can talk and joke. Cute girls are always a bonus also :) No females my age at ANY of my tables the whole time I was there, very dissapointing. Anyways, I don't play live games to make money, even though I usually do. Online is where the money is made but the fun isn't quite there.

I don't have any plans to go back to AC anytime soon. I just enjoy Vegas so much more. But if you're going to AC, Borgata and the Taj are the only places worth going to, in my opinion. As for the rest of the town, there's almost nothing. The boardwalk was very disappointing, with some mini-carnival type tourist trap and that's about it. We hit some rock and roll museum which is probably worth 20 minutes, and free, if you are looking for some things to see.

Of course I had fun, I was with friends and playing poker. But Atlantic City is not on my list of destinations for anytime soom.

This Week

2004-09-19T13:09:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: $4966

I didn't quite hit my goal of $1000 this week. It's been a busy week/weekend. It's close enough that I will call it a success, I just don't want to spend any more time on it. I've still made far more from poker this month that I will from my stipend.

I played more last night, and I was even until my aces got cracked twice. After that I quit, hung out with my roomates and went to bed. Then I raked in almost $200 in an hour and a half this afternoon. It was more, but my last hand AQ fell to AK, it happens.

Hand of the day: This was last night. Aces in mid late position, I 3 bet it after many people come in. 7 people see a capped pot. Flop is J53, two hearts and a spade. Me and an overaggressive player cap it. 4 or 5 people see a turn of Td. Checked to me, I bet and everyone calls. Turn is a heart, checked to the button who bets. The button is a decent player, straightforward player from what I can tell. So after two callers in front of me, I fold. Yes I folded aces in a $120 pot for one river bet. Very rare that I would do this, but I did so correctly. He turned over the KQ hearts.

We talked a bit afterward, and I told him my opinion that cold calling 3 bets with KQs was a loose play. At least in terms of all in equity, it was a losing play in the long run. The implied odds may have been there, and I believe he had the 2nd best hand next to me. The real problem lies in that if you flop top pair, you're going to be in trouble with at most 5 outs. If you flop overcards, you're going to think the pot is laying you enough odds to chase, even though it probably isn't (you'll need two running cards). If he was paying attention to me, the best he could hope for is that I have AJs, in which case he'd probably be correct to call. More likely I have QQ KK AA AK AQ in which it is clearly a TERRIBLE call and he should know that he'll need to get lucky to win this hand. He should know he'll need two pair or better to win this hand.

The guy capping it with me had KJ, and someone else called the whole way with J7. I love $2/4. I lost the hand, but I played it the best way possible, I put my money in with the hand most likely to win and folded when I clearly lost. Sometimes that's just the way it works out. It's this perspective that took me a long time to learn, and I think other potentially winning players just haven't yet grasped this concept.

Swings

2004-09-18T17:13:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: 4816

The last few days (before today) were the worst poker days in the last two months. My hands weren't holding, my reads were wrong, and people outdrew me. People betting and raising in steal position actually had hands, or balls to cap on a bluff. Overpairs would be up against larger overpairs, or the smaller ones would trip up. Everyone seemed tight and aggressive, and I have difficulty playing against tight aggressive opponents when I'm playing 4 tables at once. I only have so much attention, I usually stick to ABC poker, with a few tricks I've learned on my own and from the new book Small Stakes Hold. We've all been there with bad days or weeks. I dropped about $300 in 3 days. Then today, I raked in $500 within 3 hours. Such is poker. Of course, I think Saturday afternoon/early evening is some of the best action ever.

Hand of the day, this hand I think I could have played better.

KQ hearts in MP. I raise first in, get one caller and the SB maniac reraises me. The BB calls, as do I and the LP. Flop is AK5, two hearts. SB and I cap the flop, with the BB cold calling the whole way. I figure I have as many as 15 outs, if I'm not winning already. Turn is a black 5 pairing the board. Checked to me and I take a free card. Turn is a blank. SB thinks awhile and bets, BB folds and I call for a split pot (he had K9o).

He got lucky that it was a split pot. Playing 4 tables, it's tough to notice the maniacs and I usually would have folded here, assuming he at least had some weak ace. I do notice the maniacs eventually, but usually only after I've been outplayed once or twice. I think it was a tough call here, reraising with 2nd pair and no draw is a rare play in 2/4.

I think I made two mistakes; I should have capped preflop and also I should have bet the turn. I figured one of these two had to have an ace and that's why I didn't bet. I don't know what the BB was doing in, smaller heart draw or guthot to to a wheel / bradway? Mabye fishing with a pkt pair? Such is $2/$4 party poker.

Hand of the Day

2004-09-15T19:17:00.001-07:00

Here's the hand of the day. I raked in the biggest hand in a while and I'm rather surprised it wasn't a bit bigger. I'm in the cutoff with TT. The table was fairly tight for a 2-4 table.

MP calls, I raise, BB calls and MP re-raises! I was completely confused because limp re-raising is VERY rare in 2-4 and I can't recall seeing it done in MP on a table that very so aggressive preflop. I just call along with the BB. Flop is QT4. BB checks, MP bets and I raise, everyone calls and I'm rather surprised that I'm not reraised. Turn is a Q for QT4 (Q). MP bets and I raise, BB cold calls and MP calls. MP I'm sure has a Q (Mabye AQ?) and the BB could have anything as far as I know. But if he had AQ, I'm surprised he didn't pop me back, what does he think I have?

Anyways, river is a T for QT4 (Q) (T). The 3 of us cap it and the MP has AQ and BB has Q9. I rake in a $104 pot. I'm a little disapointed that neither of them showed more aggression, but plenty happy a ten came instead of a 4.

Welcome

2004-09-15T19:17:00.000-07:00

Current Roll: 4620

Welcome, I'm a grad student and now consider myself a professional poker player. There is some debate about what it means to be professional, but I'll define it as follows: Anyone that earns more than half their income through poker is a professional. I'm loosly defining this term as I only have made more than other income for about a month and a half.

I've been a winning player for about 9 months now, and I was a losing player before that. I was probably a good enough player to win, but I would let the bad beats effect me emotionally and tilt. At one point, I was essesntially broke, down about 2K.

What really changed things for me was - I switched to 7-card stud from hold'em. I feel it's a tougher game, but there are fewer bad beats than in hold'em, but I could be wrong. I was cleaning up on 1-2 pp stud, 4 tables deep eventually, until about 6 months ago when I broke even.

I re-examined my hold'em game and picked it back up. I still had far too many holes in my game; I like connectors too much, especially suited, regardless of game conditions. I saw far too many flops, wasn't aggressive enough preflop, didn't bet strong draws enough, and couldn't lay down when I should. Even still, $2-4 is so easy I was winning small amounts. The most important change was my outlook on the game.

Instead of getting emotional when I took a bad beat, I would laugh it off or be happy that my opponent made such a poor play. I was a winning player, but the swings I took were incredible.

One day, things clicked. I started seeing less flops (made easier by playing more tables), I started making laydowns. The swings were more up than down.

About two months ago I placed 7th in the pokerstars 20K guarenteed tounrey, for a profit of $960 or so. This was the only time I played in the tourney and don't plan on playing again soon due to the fact that I was up until 3am eastern.

Then I bought Small Stakes Hold'em and I closed a bunch of holes in my preflop game. I startd reraising a lot more, and this is a good thing. I'm also able to laydown hands like AK and even JJ preflop. (I've havn't yet been able to lay down QQ preflop even though there were a few times I knew I should have.)

Anyways, in the last month I made $2600. In the last week and a half I've made $1600. Mabye I'm too optimistic too soon, but I'm fully confident that I'm a strong, winning player. I've taken my share of bad beats and bad cards in the last month and have still come out ahead. My estimate for the last two weeks is 3BB / table / hour, or about $50 per hour in $2-4, playing 4 tables deep.

I've decided it's time to start documenting my play and results, so here's my blog.